Virtual Water: An Alternative Source of Water?

Because my previous posts have solely focused on Sub Saharan Africa, I wanted to broaden my knowledge of water and food in Africa. Therefore, in this blogpost I will focus on North Africa. A topic that has interested me since I started studying geography is ‘virtual water’. The main questions addressed in this post include: What exactly is virtual water?and To what extent can virtual water be a solution to food insecurity?

The definition of Virtual Water

The term virtual water was first coined by John Anthony Allan [Tony Allan] at a seminar at SOAS in 1993. Virtual water can be defined as “the water needed to produce agricultural commodities” (Allan, 1998; Allan, 2003). In other terms, it represents the virtually embedded water in an agricultural good, and can differ substantially between different food products. To clarify, Table 1 indicates various crops and meats and their estimated virtual water content. Therefore, virtual water trade refers to the export and import of water in the form of agricultural goods. It is generally assumed that virtual water can reduce water scarcity, and thus alleviate food insecurity. The concept thus relies on the economic ‘comparative advantage model’, which illustrates that countries with greater abundance of a resource [water] can produce a product with a lower opportunity cost than its trading partner. If a country suffers from water scarcity, for example, it has a comparative disadvantageand would thus aim to import virtual water (Antonelli, 2015; Hoekstra, 2003). Moreover, the theory implies that both the importing country but also the exporting country obtain benefits from virtual water trades. While the importing country can overcome issues of water scarcity and low agricultural yields, the exporting country can generate profits and expand agricultural production for the international market.

Table 1 – Virtual water embedded in various food products (m³/ ton) 

Food Product	Virtual Water Content (m3/ ton)
Wheat Rice Maize Potatoes Soybean Beef Eggs Milk  Cheese	1150 2656 450 160 2300 15977 4657 865 5288Based C

Calculations by Hoekstra and Hung (2002)and Chapagain and Hoekstra (2003)

The Case of Egypt

Egypt is a water scarce country located in the so-called Middle East and North Africa [MENA] region. Given that nearly 14 million people in Egypt experience food insecurity, it is an interesting case study for exploring virtual water trade (WFP, n/d). Egypt has a long history of importing staple crops like wheat and maize, implying its reliance on virtual water (Figure 1). In fact, recent import data shows that wheat makes up over a quarter of all imports, emphasising the significance of virtual water trading (OEC, 2017). 

 

Figure 1 – Wheat and Maize Imports in Egypt from 1961 to 1998 (Wichelns, 2001)

There are various reasons for the country’s demand for imports. Firstly, Egypt’s climate is predominantly arid, with only around 10% of all water being sourced from rainfall and the ground. While the Nile River provides an important alternative source of water, it is subject to political conflicts that can significantly reduce water availability in the long term. Secondly, rapid population growth of around 27.4 million people in 1961 to 98.4 million in 2018 increases the pressure to make water available for domestic-, industrial- and agricultural uses (World Bank, 2018). Third, given the gradual rising GDP per capita rate, consumption preferences may also change. In the future, demand for protein sources like meat can grow. As a result, virtual water imports would increase to a great extent, given that meat production uses large amounts of water (i.e. 15977 m³1 ton of beef, see Table 1). Lastly, climate change and its potential to raise overall temperatures and generate extreme weather events further augment water scarcity and add to reasons why Egypt turns to virtual water imports (Antonelli and Tamea, 2015; Wahba et al., 2018). 

Therefore, in order to overcome such challenges of water- and food insecurity, virtual water imports may seem as effective and cheaper solution. Rather than local focusing on local production, increased food security through virtual water trade can mitigate climate change impacts, prevent political conflict, satisfy changing demands and improve gender relations. Furthermore, as claimed by Allan (Allan 1998, Allan 2003).

But, returning back to my initial question, does virtual water really solve Egypt’s issue of food insecurity? 

While the concept virtual water may seem convincing at first, disadvantages seem to outweigh the advantages. Egypt, like many importing countries, relies heavily on Western corporations. Multinationals like Cargill, Louis Dreyfus and Archer Daniels Midlands dominate the market and have the power to change prices. Such price increases can stimulate civil unrest in Egypt, likely to disrupt infrastructure and productivity in the country (Sojamo et al., 2012). Moreover, a wide-known issue associated with virtual water is dependency. Egypt’s continuous rise in imports (Figure 1) essentially reflects a degree of dependency upon food imports. On one hand, dependency on virtual water imports can lead to intervention of the exporting country in local politics. On the other hand, dependency can adversely affect local farmers whose sales can drop, often leading to them failing to operate their businesses (El-Sadek, 2010; WWC, 2004). Additionally, while some people can afford imports, regardless of price spikes, others cannot. As a result, social development of Egypt can be hindered significantly. 

All in all, it seems that virtual water trade carries more risks than advantages, making me question whether Egypt’s reliance upon food imports is favourable. While there is potential of food security alleviation as a result of cheaper prices and efficient water usage, the risk associated with international trade and dependency may undermine these effects. For any government looking to expand imports, or even export themselves, it is important that the government considers the effects of virtual water on society, politics, the local economy and the environment. 

I hope you enjoyed reading this post. If you have come across any articles/ papers on this topic that grabbed your attention – then do let me know in the comments. I would love to read more about virtual water.